On June 16, the U.S. Senate Finance Committee released its draft of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The renewable energy industry had been highly anticipating the Senate’s version of the bill, hoping it would reverse some of the House’s more disruptive provisions passed in May. Those hopes were not realized.

While less abrupt than the House version, the Senate bill still accelerates the phaseout of the IRA’s clean energy tax credits and adds new constraints on foreign supply chains.

The proposal would slash ITC/PTC incentives to 60% in 2026,20% in 2027, and zero in 2028, while leaving full credits intact for storage, geothermal, hydro, and nuclear through the 2030s.

This policy shift blindsides developers who have relied on a decade of certainty to justify major investments, and it hits just as the market is scaling to meet exploding demand from AI and data centers.

With less solar and wind supply expected to come online, especially in high-load growth regions, forward prices are expected to adjust upward.

The Senate Finance text is only a committee draft, and amendments are highly likely. Yet the administration’s July 4th deadline creates urgency for a quick vote.

The industry’s lobbying priority is to restore at least a partial credit for projects that reach final investment decision (FID) before 2030 – mirroring the 2015‑2020 PTC phase‑out compromise.

For market participants, the next 12–18 months could represent acritical “last‑call window” to contract, finance, or hedge renewable assets under attractive federal‑tax‑credit economics.

After 2027 the playing field could look very different.

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