The value of a standard, 10-year solar PPA in ERCOT declined slightly in 2023. But the minimal change masks a more complicated story.

Traders' increasingly lower valuation of on-peak power futures reflected their expectations of a worsening 'duck curve' in ERCOT. The further traders looked into the future, the less they valued on-peak power.

The result for solar PPAs was that the first few years became more valuable to offtakers, while the later years became a lot less valuable.

Net, the devaluation of the long-term outweighed the appreciation of the short-term, hence the value trends shown below.

Specifically, here's how the values changed from January to December, according to our SWRV methodology:

• Houston Hub: -6% (from $51.14 to $47.88)
• North Hub: -4% (from $45.42 to $43.61)
• South Hub: -1% (from $40.99 to $40.70)
• West Hub: -1% (from $41.42 to $41.04)