A dramatic rise in data center power use across the PJM region is set to test the grid in the coming years as never before. A new report finds that meeting this load growth will hinge heavily on large-scale deployments of BESS, positioning the resource as a cornerstone for reliability in nation’s largest electric system.

The Brattle Group report “Outlook for Energy Storage in PJM” found that 16 GW of 4-hour BESS will need to be installed by 2032 to meet the region’s rapid load growth, and 23 GW by 2040. Without the BESS additions, PJM risks up to 15 GW of forced load-shed during extreme weather periods by the early 2030s, while customer costs could increase by 30%, according to the study commissioned by the Energy Storage Coalition.

“Battery storage is a key asset for PJM’s reliable, cost-effective future,” according to the report. “Our study projects that large quantities of dispatchable resources like storage and gas will be necessary to maintain resource adequacy and manage weather-risk in PJM.”

The projected growth in BESS would mark a startling rise for a resource that for years has had anemic gains in PJM. BESS capacity there still trails below 500 MW, lagging far behind ERCOT and CAISO, where last year installed capacity reached 8.5 GW and 11.7 GW, respectively. It would also transform BESS’s role in the PJM market from a relatively small player in mostly providing ancillary services to taking on a central responsibility of ensuring resource adequacy.

Gas-fired generating capacity has been the primary generation type for addressing resource adequacy concerns, but current market dynamics increasingly favor BESS, the report found. Trade barriers, supply chain backlogs and overwhelming demand have made gas-fired power plants even slower to deploy compared to the 12–18-month period for BESS, while also eroding the price advantage for the fossil generators.

Earlier this year, PJM had more than 1 GW of pending projects and 55 GW in the interconnection queue, though historically most of those developments don’t get built. States are taking their own actions, too. Maryland plans to build over 3 GW of BESS by 2033, while Virginia has a 3 GW mandate by 2031. New Jersey is advancing a program to incentivize 2 GW by 2030.

Primarily due to power-hungry data centers, PJM’s peak load is forecast to grow 3% per year over the next decade. PJM’s summer peak demand will jump by 16 GW by 2028, and by an additional 30 GW by 2032. This will mark “the fastest peak load growth in two decades.”

Brattle sees the role of BESS in PJM continuing to evolve. While in the near-term BESS would be focused primarily on resource adequacy, it would in the next decade be more heavily used for arbitrage opportunities, including time-shifting of loads to align with solar generation patterns as renewable penetration ramps up.

“Without storage, there would be insufficient new resources available to mobilize in PJM to serve forecasted net peak loads during challenging weather conditions,” the report said.