Industry Analysis
Feb 27, 2024

Activity for Houston Solar PPAs in the Mid-40s and Low-50s

We saw exciting activity in 2023 for Houston solar PPAs in the mid $40s and low $50s.

In total, originators posted 71 proposals (54 offers to sell and 17 bids to buy) for Houston solar on RenewaFi last year.

The bids and offers overlapped between about $40 and $50. While the bid-offer spread was wide, market participants countered each other five times. There were two potential deals with narrow bid-offer spreads:

  • A 1-year, 100 MW, Energy only PPA with a Jan. 24 start in the low $50s
  • A 10-year, 200 MW, Energy + REC PPA with a Dec. 26 start in the mid $40s

This chart is a density plot, measuring how frequently different prices were posted.

The blue hump represents bids to buy, and the red hump represent offers to sell.

Bids were most frequently posted at $40 and offers at $53.

And this chart shows the same data but over time, starting in April 2023.

The red area represents the range of offer prices. The yellow area represents the value ("SWRV" or Shape Weighted RenewaFi Value) of those offers.

When the yellow line is above the red, the offers are – on average – in the money from an offtaker perspective. The potential deal in December, for example, was priced around $46. Since its value was above $50, it was $4 in the money.

Of note, the dip in December 2023 came as a result of aggressive countering for a long-term offtake opportunity. But, generally, the value of Houston solar had been declining slightly throughout 2023.

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