Industry Analysis
Feb 28, 2024

The Value in Operating Wind PPAs

There’s good value in operating wind PPAs right now.

The values (or SWRVs) of wind PPAs increased faster than PPA prices in the 2nd half of 2023, so that, by December, the average offer was actually in the money from an offtaker perspective.

The charts below analyze 15 bids (to buy) and 139 offers (to sell) for West hub wind posted to RenewaFi in 2023.

This chart is a density plot, measuring how frequently different prices were posted.

The blue hump represents bids, the red hump represent offers, and the green stars are matches.

Bids were most frequently posted around $28, with a very narrow price distribution, and offers at $34.

Bids and offers overlapped between $29 and $31, and there were several opportunities to match in that range. Two matches were just shy of $30 for 3-7 year PPAs on operating projects. The offtakers were an investment-grade industrial and a large wholesale firm.

This chart shows the same data but over time, starting in April 2023.

More recently, and not displayed here, we are seeing wind pricing increase into the mid and even high $30s. There was just a match at North hub for a 5-year wind PPA closer to $40, but with a June 2024 start.

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