Industry Analysis
Jun 18, 2024

ERCOT Releases New Supply Projections

ERCOT is expecting ~70 GW of new load over the next 10-15 years, with approximately 35 GW in 2026 alone. Of that 70 GW, 4 GW is expected to be price responsive load, while 60 GW is expected to be flat load.

Now the ISO is starting to reveal where they expect the supply to come from.

Last week, ERCOT published its 2024 Long-Term System Assessment (LTSA) for a scenario of high load growth and more restrictive environmental regulations. In the assessment, ERCOT disclosed updated projections for solar and wind capacity additions.

The charts below compare these new projections to ones published by the EIA in their 2023 outlook.*

By 2034, the ERCOT projections expect 140% more solar and 38% more wind than the EIA projections.

And solar is expected to contribute more new capacity than any other resource.

They also predict 79 GW of additional BESS capacity.

See the ERCOT report here

*Note: The EIA data shown below is the midpoint between two EIA scenarios for solar photovoltaic generating capacity; one assumes high zero-carbon technology cost and the other assumes low zero-carbon technology cost.

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