Industry Analysis
Nov 1, 2023
North Hub Solar PPA Trends
When you don’t know what the market is willing to pay for your PPA, your job gets harder.
Harder to negotiate with counterparties, harder to secure approvals internally, and harder to maintain your reputation.
But you CAN know.
You just need a few data points:
- At what price are developers trying to sell the product?
- What is the market value of the product?
- At what price are offtakers willing to pay for the product?
RenewaFi can answer these questions for solar and wind products in ERCOT.
For example, North hub solar over the past 6 months:
- This chart shows median offer prices trending up $1.50 to $52.00
- Next, this chart adds median offer value, which declined $4.50 to $45.40.
- Finally, this chart shows offtaker willingness to bid and even match at $41.50.* The blue dots represent actual bids posted to RenewaFi, whereas the blue range represents RenewaFi's proprietary estimates of where offtakers would have been most likely to bid. Here we can see that North hub solar fell 'out of the money' over the last 6 months, but offtakers still pursued PPAs.
*The match was for Energy and RECs under a medium-term unit contingent offtake structure (more details in our marketplace).
