Industry Analysis
Oct 31, 2023

The Rise of Wind in ERCOT?

The value of ERCOT wind has increased over the past six months, particularly at North hub.

Whereas the wind shape at North was worth $33.50 back in April, it’s now worth over $41.00, a $7.50 increase. That’s a 23% gain in just 6 months!

In contrast, solar is becoming far less valuable to offtakers.

These trends are likely due to expected solar saturation in Texas, as already experienced in California.

Just a few years ago, offtakers valued ERCOT solar because there was little solar capacity in that market, and the solar generation profile correlated with high prices and high demand. Wind, in comparison, was over built and worth little, resulting in wind PPAs in the low teens.

But RenewaFi’s data suggests that those preferences started to flip in Q2 and Q3 2023.

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