Update on Net Load Scenarios & Wind Capture Rates
In May 2025, we introduced two new net load sensitivities based on newly reported ERCOT data.
The 2025 High Renewables Buildout sensitivity assumes 138 GW peak load with 136 GW of renewables and 42 GW of BESS by 2030, per ERCOT’s long term load forecast and interconnection queue from Spring ‘25. For more on this sensitivity, see here.
The 2025 Low Renewables Buildout sensitivity assumes 138 GW peak load with 112 GW of renewables and 31 GW of BESS by 2030, per ERCOT’s long term load forecast and interconnection queue from Spring ‘25. For more on this sensitivity, see here.
In addition to these new sensitivities, we also adjusted forecasted capture rates for Wind PPAs, per market sentiment. Previous sensitivities assumed a material drop-off in wind capture rates, stemming from assumptions that the resource is extremely prone to cannibalization. However, capture rates over the last couple of years have been relatively stable, and the expectation is that there will only be moderate growth in wind capacity in the future, lessening the risk of cannibalization.
